Today is Monday, February 26, 2024.
You may have already heard about the Marshall Plan after World War II, when United States financially helped the reconstruction of Europe.
Carbon Credit Markets checked and found this reference at the German Marshall Fund portal (that will be quoted again at the end of this article):
“The Marshall Plan dedicated an unprecedented amount of foreign aid—$13.2 billion, over $130 billion in today’s dollars". That in terms of nominal value. It was also equivalent to "5.2% of United States GDP”.
So why don’t we also check how much the US GDP is nowadays, reflecting the actual global economic expansion of "Planet A" since then, in almost 80 years, and recalculate that "5.2% of US GDP”?
It would be over US$ 1,2 trillion.
Well, during last COP-28 in Dubai, and mentioned in one of our diaries, the Marshall Plan was given as a reference for the "lack of ambition of the Loss & Damage Fund". It did not even reach US$ 1 billion.
Think about it. And make up your own mind at the end of the article.
"At COP28 in Dubai, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. Thanks to the past few decades of policy and technology innovation, we’re on track to dramatically reduce fossil fuel use in power and road transport through mid-century. However, fossil use in industry, aviation, and shipping is slated to remain stubbornly high or grow in the same timeframe. Natural gas demand in particular is on track to increase as much as 50% by 2050".
This is what the Rhodium Group is indicating, after the release of Rhodium Climate Outlook, its most recent analysis with an outlook for global fossil fuel demand through the end of the century based on the probabilistic projections of the likely evolution of global energy systems and GHG emissions.
In short, as the electricity and transport sectors decarbonize, the industrial sector is lagging behind, becoming the largest challenge.
Roughly 13% of global fossil fuel consumption feeds non-energy purposes, primarily in the industrial sector. This includes fuel used as feedstocks for plastics and ammonia production, coal used as a reductant in ironmaking, and non-energy fuels used directly for their physical properties, including waxes, solvents, and lubricants. Rhodium Group projections indicate that industry will reach up 40% of total fossil demand in 2050.
"Carbon capture and low-carbon hydrogen can help drive emissions down in industries like iron and steel and ammonia production, but these technologies don’t guarantee a shift away from fossil, and many industrial processes and feedstocks remain unaddressed".
On the other hand, due to cheap and widely available wind and solar, the world is on track for a rapid decline in coal consumption across the power sector, driving a 40-55% reduction from today’s levels in overall global coal demand by mid-century.
About the Rhodium Group, based in New York, it is an independent research provider, combining economic data and policy insight to analyze global trends, a key source for the media, government bodies, firms, investors, philanthropic leaders and policymakers worldwide. Besides Rhodium’s Energy & Climate practice, other key areas of expertise include "Chinese economic, social and political development, energy and climate change and India’s emergence as a global player and advanced economy restructuring". Relevant to mention the impressive think-tanks and universities with whom Rhodium Group has been collaborating overtime:
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs - Center on Global Energy Policy, CSIS Center of Strategic & International Studies, National Committee on US China Relations, Asia Society of Policy Institute, University of Chicago - Energy Policy Institute (EPIC), Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences and Berkeley University of California and the GMF German Marshall Fund.
Click at the image below for Rhodium Climate Outlook and here for an article at their portal.
