Friday, 06 September 2024.
Closing a week of posts about some scientific perspectives on the climate - geology, oceans and carbon - today we will deal with the atmosphere.
Studies had already indicated that severe turbulence in the atmosphere would increase significantly in the coming decades, as temperatures also increase.
A special alert to aviation.
The study in question today is from the University of Reading in England, focusing on the impacts of global warming on the so-called “Jet Streams”.
But what are Jet Streams?
As already indicated in the title, they are basically “rivers of air”. Or perhaps better, from now on, “air rapids”.
More specifically, according to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, Jet Streams are air currents that move at high altitudes, around 9,000 meters above sea level, and at very high speeds, between 130 and 230 km/hour.
Jet Streams occur in both the northern and southern hemispheres, subdivided between polar (cold) and sub-tropical (warmer), blowing from west to east, and frequently also oscillating between north and south.
About air speed, an analogy. You may have already seen that a disc rotates faster at the edges than in the center, right? The same situation happens across the globe. The rotation speed at the equator is much greater than at the Poles, the axes where the Earth rotates. This causes the air to gain “a greater boost” in the equatorial band. This is why, for example, it is where hurricanes usually start. By the way, do you know the difference between hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones? Despite being the same atmospheric phenomenon, they change their name depending on the ocean in which they appear: Atlantic, Pacific and Indian, respectively.
The position of the Jet Stream also “follows the Sun”, especially regarding the seasons. As the Sun's elevation increases each day in spring, the average position of the Jet Stream moves toward the poles. and as autumn approaches and the Sun's elevation decreases, the Jet Stream's mean latitude moves toward the equator.
Back to the University of Reading study, here are the 3 main conclusions from their climate modeling:
- Air turbulence will more than double in some locations by 2050-2080;
- Increase in the frequency of more severe turbulence;
- Greater increases at 12 thousand meters altitude.
This is therefore an important point of attention for the aviation sector, since bumps during flights, as they are both undetectable by current sensors on board and invisible to the naked eye, have been unavoidable by pilots.
Despite the study being from 2017, cases of accidents due to turbulence have become increasingly frequent. It is therefore important to improve forecasts and flight planning, thus limiting discomfort and possible injuries to passengers and crew.
Click on the image below to read the study in question. And here for a press release.
There is also the video “Climate change makes flight times longer” on YouTube, by the authors themselves.
As you will see, it states that for flights on the London - New York route, where Jet Stream speed increases by around 15%, flights will spend a total of 2,000 more hours annually, in addition to an extra US$22 million in fuel. Not to mention more emissions, fueling this cycle itself.
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