Global gas and electricity prices remain sky high. Energy cartels and fossil-fuel-rich states are back in the driving seat. In 2023 and beyond what exactly are the consequences? How to get back on track to a greener future? Here are five perspectives to closely monitor.
How will the map of global energy change?
Russia shifting its lost European exports east to Asia, mainly China and India and a new trans-siberian gas pipeline through Mongolia. East Asian countries to reduce dependency on liquefied natural gas. OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and its relation with United States, developing its renewable and fossil-fuel domestic energy resources. The European Union (EU) switching to green alternatives and transferring energy-intensive industries - steel and fertilisers - to other nations. And approaching major gas suppliers Norway, Algeria and the United States, as well as Africa and the Middle East. Energy trade ties with Algeria, Nigeria and Namibia, towards green hydrogen and clean electricity to make synthetic natural gas or carbon neutral chemicals. The Canada–Germany Hydrogen Alliance. The BarMar joint project by France, Spain and Portugal, initially to pipe natural gas and later green hydrogen.
Will sky-high energy prices boost renewables?
High global oil and gas prices stimulate solar panels and wind farms. EU fast-tracking permits for installing renewables and retrofitting buildings with efficient energy. The United States and its Inflation Reduction Act. China’s leading position in clean technologies and rare earth minerals. ‘Reshoring’, returning the production of goods back to a country. Sodium batteries or thin-film, non-silicon solar panels. A ‘mineral rush’ such as for cobalt, lithium.
How will the industrial landscape shift?
Energy-intensive sectors - aluminium, fertilisers, chemicals - starting to move to places with cheaper energy, such as United States or Middle East. Other industries, innovating. European steel makers investing in green hydrogen and wind-to-hydrogen facilities. Car makers turning to chassis made of ‘green steel’ forged using renewable energy, other parts produced using low-carbon methods. Areas rich in sunlight, wind, hydropower and biofuels, such as North Africa, Western Australia or parts of the Middle East could emerge as economic powerhouses. Risk of deindustrialization of 'legacy industries' such as coal, steel or chemicals. Ammonia as a promising way to transport green hydrogen over long distances.
Click on the image below to further analysis, including two remaining questions: What will the lasting economic impacts be and how will the energy crisis affect climate action.
