Monday, 14 October 2024.
According to the most recent edition of the Norwegian risk consultancy Det Norske Veritas DNV report – the Energy Transition Outlook, the title’s good news is mainly thanks to the falling cost of renewables. On the other hand, climate goals remain challenging.
Here are the 5 highlights indicated the summary:
2024 is likely the year of peak energy emissions, but the slow decline of post-peak emissions keeps key climate goals out of reach
Slow developments in hard-to-electrify sectors contrast with rapid cost reduction and growth of photovoltaic and batteries
Highly competitive Chinese clean technology is speeding up the transition
National and economic security priorities dominate the international agenda and slow the transition
Market forces are necessary but insufficient; energy policy needs urgent alignment with climate goals
Besides that, the report also brings analysis and discussions to the following mundane questions:
Transport. When will electric vehicles ‘take over’? Will aviation switch to hydrogen? But what about ships?
Buildings. Will urbanization affect energy demand? What about all that air-conditioning in a warming world?
Manufacturing. Why is manufacturing so hard to electrify? What does more people buying more things do to energy demand?
Fossil fuels. When will coal, oil and gas peak? How far and fast does oil fall?
Solar and wind. Does solar or wind win the green race? Is wind in trouble?
Other non-fossil sources. Is a nuclear renaissance in the offing? Will climate change favour hydropower? Will bioenergy clash with food production?
Electricity. Will the grid handle all this? Will renewables completely dominate the global power mix? Will solar and wind lead to blackouts and grid collapse, due to its reliability? Will my energy bills reduce?
Other interesting and relevant topics also covered are:
hydrogen struggling to scale in by fast-moving regions in Europe, OECD Pacific and North America
uncertainty due to geopolitics of the growing tension between power blocs, and persistent North-South inequalities
artificial intelligence enabling significant advancements in various of the energy system areas such as power grid management, materials science, energy storage, short-term weather forecasting, renewable energy siting, and environmental impact assessments.
All in all, the report provides one of the most comprehensive analyses and forecasts of the global energy system to 2050 – globally and in 10 regions.
Norway and its 5+ million inhabitants have special reasons to deeply monitor all that evolution of the energy transition, particularly after Dubai’s COP-28 consensus about phasing out fossil fuels, given the world famous relevance of its sovereign fund.
Click at the image below to go to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook portal where you can download both its full 2024 edition (261 pages) and the executive summary (11 pages).
It's worth remembering that DNV is also involved with the validation of Climeworks impressive direct air capture and storage methodology, including generating carbon credits, being developed in Iceland: “The Future today: Direct Carbon Capture's Technological Leap Forward. Carbon credit factory?”
“Hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) are indispensable to a Paris Agreement aligned transition”.Quote extracted from the foreword of the report.
